Risk Analysis for
Applied Biomathematics is helping to advance the field of Insect Resistance Management for Bt crops. This effort currently involves three separate projects.
We are collaborating with researchers from Mississippi State University, the Illinois Natural History Survey, and USDA-ARS on basic research into the disperse patterns of western corn rootworm. This project, funded by a grant through the Monsanto Insect Knowledge Research Program, will use models, genetic data, and monitoring of adults to characterize within-field, between-field, and long-distance movement.
We are also proud to be the recipients of Phase I and II Small Business Innovation Research from USDA-NIFA to support further development of RAMAS® IRM. This project will focus on expanding the number of genes available in the model and in validating model results through reproduction of published studies.
Finally, we are working directly with biotech seed companies to make sure our software delivers the insights and integration they need.
As in all of our research and development projects, our success is the product of great collaborations and the union of applied science with real-world needs. Contact us to inquire about tailored expansions of the IRM software or to discuss new areas for innovation in resistance management.
Modeling the Effect of Human Population on Land Use and Species Viability
Funding: National Science Foundation
Authors: H. Resit Akçakaya, W. Troy Tucker
This project developed methods and software to evaluate or explore the impact of human population and land-use changes on species viability. Changes in human population and land use affect the viability of native species through habitat loss to agriculture, urban sprawl, and industrial development; habitat fragmentation; decreased habitat quality; and increased direct harvest of species. Applied Biomathematics has developed internationally known RAMAS software for modeling the effect of changes in the quality and amount of habitat on the viability of species. The methods being developed in this project will allow the incorporation of the human element into this methodology. It will lead to software that will be used to forecast the changes in the human population, and the effect of these changes on the land-use and resource-use patterns. These results will be used to predict the changes in the habitat of native species, and to assess species viability and persistence. Projecting landscape change is prerequisite to conservation planning.
Both natural and anthropogenic processes drive landscape change. Relevant human ecological impacts include habitat loss due to direct human use for agriculture and housing, landscape fragmentation due to roads and development, and habitat quality decline due to altered drainage, soil loss, nutrient leaching, pollution, selective harvest, wildfire suppression, the introduction of exotic species, and grazing. Simulating human-induced landscape change remains difficult and problematic and no one best solution has emerged. We have developed an eclectic modeling framework that integrates spatially explicit landscape and metapopulation models with models of human social, economic, and demographic change. This framework is applicable to cases where sophisticated and data intensive models of human population and landscape interaction exist, as well as to cases where data is sparse and anthropogenic impacts are not well understood. In the latter case, while precision may be difficult to achieve, accurate predictions of landscape change relevant to population viability over useful time horizons are possible.
Applied Biomathematics has world-leading experts in population biology, risk analysis, and the use of RAMAS® IRM. We are here to help, and can lead projects in modeling, results synthesis, report writing, and peer reviewed publications.
Modeling and Analysis
We have extensive experience developing, reviewing, or supporting risk assessment models and related analyses. Applied Biomathematics can provide original research and project management to help fill gaps in your research team.
Data Synthesis and Report Writing
Our expert scientists can assess and summarize data and existing research and clearly communicate this synthesis in reports useful for policy development or decision making.
Using RAMAS IRM? We offer technical support and can answer your questions about the use of this software for your research project.