RAMAS® Red List Professional

Spatial and Temporal Data Analysis for Threatened Species Classifications Under Uncertainty

Overview

RAMAS Red List Professional consists of three integrated modules: RAMAS Red List 3.0, Temporal Analysis Module and Spatial Analysis Module. The first of these is the main program that is used to make threatened species assessments; the other two are data analysis modules used to estimate the parameters required for a red list assessment.

RAMAS Red List 3.0 implements IUCN (2001) threatened species criteria, which are rules for assigning species into categories representing different level of threat. The IUCN rules are based on information about such characteristics as number and distribution of individuals, fluctuations and decline in abundance and distribution, and risk of extinction. These characteristics are used as input data; the output is a classification into one of the categories, such as Critically endangered, Endangered, Vulnerable, Near threatened, or Least concern.

When any method for classification of conservation status is used, the user confronts several kinds of uncertainty. These uncertainties arise from natural variability (resulting from the fact that species’ life histories and the environments in which they live are changing over time), measurement error (i.e., the variability in parameter values that results from inaccuracies in estimating them) and semantic uncertainty (i.e., a lack of precision in the definition of terms or a lack of consistency in different assessors’ usage of them).

RAMAS Red List implements the IUCN criteria for classifying species into threat categories, but also allows for explicit incorporation of uncertainties in the input data. In other words, input data, such as the number of mature individuals, can be specified either as a number, or as a range of numbers, or a range of numbers plus a best estimate. RAMAS Red List propagates these uncertainties. Depending on the uncertainties, the resulting classification is often a single category, accompanied by a range of plausible categories.

RAMAS Red List Professional also includes two modules for estimating the variables (such as range area or population reduction) needed for an IUCN assessment. These modules, named Spatial Analysis and Temporal Analysis, estimate these variables based on survey or census data, and input them into the Red List assessment in the correct format. These modules, which can also be used independently, are described in detail below.

Temporal Analysis Module

This module is used to calculate the following parameters that are used in red list assessments, based on census data and other information.

• Generation length (years)
  
• 3-generation reduction past reduction (%)
  
• 3-generation moving-window reduction (%)
  
• Continuing decline
  (logical variable, with truth value from 0 to 1)
  
• 1-generation estimated continuing decline (%)
  
• 2-generation estimated continuing decline (%)
  
• 3-generation estimated continuing decline (%)
  
• Extreme fluctuations
  (logical variable, with truth value from 0 to 1)

The Temporal Analysis module calculates all these parameters as uncertain (fuzzy) numbers, incorporating the uncertainty in the data. The module then exports these parameters to RAMAS Red List for a threatened species assessment based on the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria.

Generation length:
The program calculates generation length based on one of three types of data specified by the user. At the simplest level, only three very basic life history data are used: age of first reproduction, oldest age of reproduction, and adult survival rate. At the second level of complexity, the user can specify juvenile survival rate and maternity, and using these, can fill a life table. Editing this life table allows using a full age-structured model to calculate the generation length. At the most advanced levels, the users can use a stage-structured model that allows the maximum flexibility in modeling almost any type of life history.

Reduction, Continuing Decline, Fluctuations:
Calculation of population reduction requires generation length (see above). To calculate reduction (as well as the other parameters described below), the users must also enter temporal data (i.e., information on estimates of population size from censuses, surveys, catch-per-unit-effort calculations, etc.). These data are entered in two tabs: "General & Populations" and "Time Series".

Spatial Analysis Module

This module is used to calculate the following parameters that are used in red list assessments, based on occurrence or survey data and other information.

• Extent of occurrence, EOO (km2)
  
• Area of occupancy, AOO (km2)
  
• Trend in extent of occurrence (% per year)
  
• Trend in area of occupancy (% per year)
  
• Continuing decline in extent of occurrence
  (logical variable, with truth value from 0 to 1)
  
• Continuing decline in area of occupancy
  (logical variable, with truth value from 0 to 1)
  
• Extreme fluctuations in extent of occurrence
  (logical variable, with truth value from 0 to 1)
  
• Extreme fluctuations in area of occupancy
  (logical variable, with truth value from 0 to 1)

Thus, this module is actually a spatio-temporal analysis module, because it also includes methods to estimate temporal measures (trends and fluctuations) in spatial (areal) variables.

The Spatial Analysis module calculates all these parameters as uncertain (fuzzy) numbers, incorporating the uncertainty in the data. The module then exports these parameters to RAMAS Red List for a threatened species assessment based on the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria.

EOO based on Delaunay triangulation (yellow lines). The location uncertainty of each occurrence is represented with a polygon (black outlines). The radius of each circle (purple) indicates the direction that maximizes EOO (the reverse direction minimizes it). The maximum and minimum EOO are used to construct a fuzzy number that represents the uncertainty in EOO.

EOO with habitat-based exclusion. The background map shows areas of habitat (green) and non-habitat (black). The red dotted triangles are excluded from EOO calculation using a criterion based on the proportion of non-habitat within each triangle. EOO is the sum of the area of yellow triangles.

Scale-area relationship, showing AOO estimate as a function of grid size.

Changes in RAMAS Red List Version 3.0

1. More flexibility in interpreting blank values: In earlier versions, parameters left blank were assumed to be "unknown", except for risk parameters, which were "ignored". In this version, there are two additional options: ignoring all blank values and assuming that all blank values are unknown. Note that this change will not affect results if data fields were not left blank (which was and is strongly recommended for all versions).
   
2. More user control over the threat status: This version allows manually entering the Red List Category and Criteria for the taxon, which can also be calculated by the program after entering all the data. It also allows a "Possibly extinct" tag.
   
3. Documenting previous assessments: This version allows the user to enter a list of previous assessments (together with the old category, criteria, and the reason for change).
   
4. Detailed taxonomic information: This version allows detailed specification of the taxonomy by selecting or typing names of taxonomic categories such as Phylum, Class, Family, etc.
   
5. Detailed ecological information based on Classification Schemes: This version allows selecting countries, habitats, threats, stresses, conservation actions, and research priorities from pre-specified lists, based on the IUCN Red List Classification Schemes.

Changes in RAMAS Red List Professional

1. Spatial Analysis module. This new program can be used to estimate Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), reduction and continuing decline in EOO and AOO, and extreme fluctuations in EOO and AOO. The program allows a variety of data types and formats for locations of occurrences, and incorporates uncertainty and reliability measures if available. The program exports its results directly into the Red List assessment in the correct format. It can also be used independently.
   
2. Temporal Analysis module. This new program can be used to estimate population reduction, continuing decline, and extreme fluctuations. The program allows census data from one or multiple populations, or suspected percent reduction for each population. The census data can incorporate uncertainties, which the program uses to estimate the Red List parameters. The program exports its results directly into the Red List assessment in the correct format. It can also be used independently.
   
3. More flexibility in interpreting blank values: In earlier versions, parameters left blank were assumed to be "unknown", except for risk parameters, which were "ignored". In this version, there are two additional options: ignoring all blank values and assuming that all blank values are unknown. Note that this change will not affect results if data fields were not left blank (which was and is strongly recommended for all versions).
   
4. More user control over the threat status: This version allows manually entering the Red List Category and Criteria for the taxon, which can also be calculated by the program after entering all the data. It also allows a "Possibly extinct" tag.
   
5. Documenting previous assessments: This version allows the user to enter a list of previous assessments (together with the old category, criteria, and the reason for change).
   
6. Detailed taxonomic information: This version allows detailed specification of the taxonomy by selecting or typing names of taxonomic categories such as Phylum, Class, Family, etc.
   
7. Detailed ecological information based on Classification Schemes: This version allows selecting countries, habitats, threats, stresses, conservation actions, and research priorities from pre-specified lists, based on the IUCN Red List Classification Schemes.
   

RAMAS Red List is used by the Species Survival Commission of IUCN - The World Conservation Union.

RAMAS Red List Professional works under Windows 95, Windows 98, Windows NT 4.0, Windows 2000, Windows XP.

For more information, see:

• Entering data into RAMAS Red List
• Viewing and interpreting the results
• Reporting and exporting the results
• Prices and ordering information
• Contribute your data files
• Technical support (frequently asked questions)