Publications by AB Scientists

Publications by AB Scientists
Ecological Risk Conservation Biology Biostatistics Uncertainty Analysis Food Chains and Community Dynamics Human health Ecotoxicology Remediation	Also see: Highly-cited publications Publications about RAMAS Software Reviews of RAMAS Quotes from reviews Methods used in RAMAS Applications of RAMAS to Specific Cases

Ecological Risk

Dunham, A.E., H.R. Akçakaya, T. S. Bridges. 2006. Using scalar models for precautionary assessments of threatened species. Conservation Biology [in press].

Akçakaya, H.R., J.M. Halley, and P. Inchausti. 2003. Population-level mechanisms for reddened spectra in ecological time series. Journal of Animal Ecology 72: 698-702.

Pastorok, R.A., H.R. Akçakaya, H. Regan, S. Ferson and S. M. Bartell. 2003. Role of ecological modeling in risk assessment. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 9: 939-972.

Regan, H.M., B.E. Sample and S. Ferson. 2002. Deterministic and probabilistic ecological soil screening levels for wildlife. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 21(4):882-890.

Pastorok, R.A., Bartell S.M., Ferson, S., and Ginzburg L.R., (eds). 2001. Ecological modeling in risk assessment: Chemical effects on populations, ecosytems, and landscapes. Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton, FL.

Spencer, M., N.S. Fisher, W.-X. Wang, S. Ferson. 2001. Temporal variability and ignorance in Monte Carlo contaminant bioaccumulation models: a case study with selenium in Mytilus edulis. Risk Analysis 21: 383-394.

Ferson, S. 1996. Automated quality assurance checks on model structure in ecological risk assessments. Human and Environmental Risk Assessment 2:558-569.

Ferson, S. and T.F. Long. 1995. Conservative uncertainty propagation in environmental risk assessments. Environmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment - Third Volume, ASTM STP 1218, J.S. Hughes, G.R. Biddinger and E. Mones (eds.), American Society for Testing and Materials, Philadelphia, pp. 97-110.

Millstein, J.A. 1995. Simulating extremes in pesticide misapplication from backpack sprayers. International Journal of Pest Management 41:36-45.

Goldstein, R. and S. Ferson. 1994. Response of plants to interacting stresses (ROPIS): program rationale, design and implications. Journal of Environmental Quality 23:407-411.

Burgman, M., S. Ferson and H. R. Akçakaya. 1993. Risk Assessment in Conservation Biology. Chapman & Hall, London. Population and Community Biology Series, 314 pp. [reviewed in Biological Conservation 69:229, 1994; Journal of Ecology 82:428-429, 1994; Trends in Ecology and Evolution 8:225-226, 1993; Quarterly Review of Biology 69:419, 1994.]

Ferson, S. and R. Kuhn. 1992. Propagating uncertainty in ecological risk analysis using interval and fuzzy arithmetic. Computer Techniques in Environmental Studies IV, P. Zannetti (ed.), Elsevier Applied Science, London, pp. 387-401.

Ginzburg, L. and S. Ferson. 1992. Assessing the effect of compensation on the risk of population decline and extinction. Estuarine Research in the 1980's: The Hudson River Environmental Society Seventh Symposium on Hudson River Ecology, C. Lavett Smith (ed.), State University of New York Press, Albany, pp. 392-403.

Akçakaya, H. R. 1991. A method for simulating demographic stochasticity. Ecological Modelling 54:133-136.

Akçakaya, H. R. and L. R. Ginzburg. 1991. Ecological considerations in EPA's review for field tests of genetically engineered organisms. Pages 267-287 in: Assessing Ecological Risks of Biotechnology. L.R. Ginzburg, ed. Butterworth-Heinemann, Massachusetts.

Akçakaya, H. R. and L. R. Ginzburg. 1991. Ecological risk analysis for single and multiple populations. Pages 73-87 in: Species Conservation: A Population-Biological Approach. A. Seitz and V. Loeschcke, eds. Birkhauser Verlag, Basel.

Ferson, S., R. Akçakaya, L. Ginzburg and M. Krause. 1991. Use of RAMAS to Estimate Ecological Risk: Two Fish Species Case Studies. Technical Report EN-7176. Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California.

Ginzburg, L.R. (editor). 1991. Assessing Ecological Risks of Biotechnology. Butterworth, Stoneham, Massachusetts.

Ginzburg, L.R., S.F. Ferson and H. R. Akçakaya. 1990. Reconstructibility of density dependence and the conservative assessment of extinction risk. Conservation Biology 4:63-70.

Ferson, S., L. Ginzburg and A. Silvers. 1989. Extreme event risk analysis for age-structured populations. Ecological Modelling 47:175-187.

Burgman, M., H. R. Akçakaya and S. S. Loew. 1988. The use of extinction models in species conservation. Biological Conservation 43:9-25.

Ferson, S. 1988. Microcomputer software for stochastic demography and ecological risk analysis. American Statistician 42:273.

Conservation Biology

Butchart, S., H.R. Akçakaya, E. Kennedy, L. Master and C. Hilton-Taylor. 2006. Biodiversity indicators based on trends in conservation status: strengths of the IUCN Red List Index. Conservation Biology [in press]

Akçakaya, H.R., J. Franklin, A.D. Syphard, J.R. Stephenson. 2005. Viability of Bell's Sage Sparrow (Amphispiza belli ssp belli): altered fire regimes. Ecological Applications 15:521-531.

Butchart, S.H.M., A.J. Stattersfield, L.A. Bennun, H.R. Akçakaya, J. Baillie, S.N. Stuart, C. Hilton-Taylor and G.M. Mace. 2005. Using IUCN Red List Indices to measure progress towards the 2010 target and beyond. Philosophical Transactions: Biological Sciences 360:255-268.

Akçakaya, H.R., V.C. Radeloff, D.J. Mladenoff, and H.S. He. 2004. Integrating landscape and metapopulation modeling approaches: viability of the sharp-tailed grouse in a dynamic landscape. Conservation Biology 18: 526-537.

Akçakaya, H.R., M.A. Burgman, O. Kindvall, C. Wood, P. Sjögren-Gulve, J. Hatfield, and M.A. McCarthy (editors). 2004. Species Conservation and Management: Case Studies. Oxford University Press, New York.

Rodrigues, A.S.L., H.R. Akçakaya, S.J. Andelman, and 18 others. 2004. Global gap analysis: priority regions for expanding the global protected area network. BioScience 54:1092-1100.

Butchart, S.H.M. , A.J. Stattersfield, L.A. Bennun, S.M. Shutes, H.R. Akçakaya, J.E.M. Baillie, S.N. Stuart, C. Hilton-Taylor and G.M. Mace. 2004. Measuring global trends in the status of biodiversity: Red List Indices for birds. PLoS Biology 2(12): e383. [See related "News and Views" article in Nature 431:1046-1047; 28 October 2004]

Akçakaya, H.R., J.L. Atwood, D. Breininger, C.T. Collins, and B. Duncan. 2003. Metapopulation dynamics of the California least tern. Journal of Wildlife Management 67:829-842.

Lamoreux, J., H.R. Akçakaya, L. Bennun, N. Collar, L. Boitani, D. Brackett, A. Brautigam, T.M. Brooks, G. Fonseca, R.A. Mittermeier, A.B. Rylands, U. Gardenfors, C. Hilton-Taylor, G. Mace, B.A. Stein, S. Stuart. 2003. The value of the IUCN Red Lists. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 18(5):214-215.

Root, K. V.; H. R. Akçakaya; L.R. Ginzburg. 2003. A multispecies approach to ecological valuation and conservation. Conservation Biology 17:196-206.

Akçakaya, H.R. 2002. Estimating the variance of survival rates and fecundities. Animal Conservation 5:333-336.

Brook, B. W., M. A. Burgman, H. R. Akçakaya, J. J. O'Grady, and R. Frankham. 2002. Critiques of PVA ask the wrong questions: throwing the heuristic baby out with the numerical bathwater. Conservation Biology 16:262-263.

Regan, H.M., M. Colyvan and M.A. Burgman. 2002. A taxonomy and treatment of uncertainty for ecology and conservation biology. Ecological Applications 12(2):618-628.

Milner-Gulland, E.J. and H.R. Akçakaya. 2001. Sustainability indices for exploited populations under uncertainty. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 16:686-692.

Akçakaya, H.R. 2001. Linking population-level risk assessment with landscape and habitat models. Science of the Total Environment 274:283-291.

Root, K. V. 2001. Evaluating risks for threatened aquatic species: The shortnose sturgeon in the Connecticut River. In Dixon D., W. VanWinkle, D. Secor (eds.), Biology, Management and Protection of Sturgeon, American Fisheries Society.

Regan, H.M., R. Lupia, A.N. Drinnan and M.A. Burgman. 2001. The currency and tempo of extinction. The American Naturalist 157: 1-10.

Akçakaya, H.R. 2000. Population viability analyses with demographically and spatially structured models. Ecological Bulletins 48:23-38.

Akçakaya H.R. and P. Sjögren-Gulve. 2000. Population viability analysis in conservation planning: an overview. Ecological Bulletins 48:9-21.

Brook, B.W., J. J. O'Grady, A. P. Chapman, M. A. Burgman, H. R. Akçakaya, R. Frankham. 2000. Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology. Nature 404:385-387.

Akçakaya, H.R., S. Ferson, M.A. Burgman, D.A. Keith, G.M. Mace and C.R. Todd. 2000. Making consistent IUCN classifications under uncertainty. Conservation Biology 14:1001-1013.

Akçakaya, H.R. 2000. Viability analyses with habitat-based metapopulation models. Population Ecology 42:45-53. (The original publication is available at http://www.springerlink.com)

Akçakaya, H.R. 2000. Conservation and management for multiple species: integrating field research and modeling into management decisions. Environmental Management 26: S75-S83. (The original publication is available at http://www.springerlink.com)

Drechsler M., B.B. Lamont, M.A. Burgman, H.R. Akçakaya, E.T.F. Witkowski, Supriyadi. 1999. Modelling the persistence of an apparently immortal Banksia species after fire and land clearing. Biological Conservation 88:249-259.

Shultz, S.M.; A.E. Dunham; K.V. Root; S.L. Soucy; S.D. Carroll, L.R. Ginzburg. 1999. Conservation Biology with RAMAS® EcoLab. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA.

Root, K.V. 1998. Evaluating the effects of habitat quality, connectivity and catastrophes on a threatened species. Ecological Applications 8(3):854-865.

Akçakaya, H.R. and M.G. Raphael. 1998. Assessing human impact despite uncertainty: viability of the northern spotted owl metapopulation in the northwestern USA. Biodiversity and Conservation 7:875-894.

Ferson, S. (editor) Quantitative Methods for Conservation Biology, Springer-Verlag, New York [in preparation].

Akçakaya, H. R. and J. L. Atwood. 1997. A habitat-based metapopulation model of the California Gnatcatcher. Conservation Biology 11:422-434.

Akçakaya, H. R., M. Burgman and L. Ginzburg. 1997. Applied Population Ecology: principles and computer exercises using RAMAS EcoLab 1.0. Applied Biomathematics, New York. 255 pp.

Ginzburg, L.R. and L. Goldwasser. 1997. Variability and measurement error in extinction risk analysis: the northern spotted owl on the Olympic Peninsula. Quantitative Methods for Conservation Biology, S. Ferson, ed. Springer-Verlag, New York.

Akçakaya, H. R. 1996. Linking GIS with Models of Ecological Risk Assessment for Endangered Species. Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling.

Akçakaya, H. R. 1996. Linking Metapopulation Models with GIS for Population Viability Analysis. Pages 45-54 in Using Population Viability Analysis in Ecosystem Management at Fundy National Park, S.Flemming, ed. Parks Canada - Ecosystem Science Review Report No.1. Halifax, N.S.

Akçakaya, H. R. and B. Baur. 1996. Effects of population subdivision and catastrophes on the persistence of a land snail metapopulation. Oecologia 105:475-483.

Akçakaya, H. R. and M. Burgman. 1995. PVA in theory and practice (letter). Conservation Biology 9:705-707.

Akçakaya, H. R., M. A. McCarthy and J. Pearce. 1995. Linking landscape data with population viability analysis: management options for the helmeted honeyeater. Biological Conservation 73:169-176.

Burgman, M.A., R.C. Grimson and S. Ferson. 1995. Inferring threat from scientific collections. Conservation Biology 9:923-928.

Lindenmeyer, D., M. Burgman, H. R. Akçakaya, R. Lacy and H.Possingham. 1995. A review of generic computer programs ALEX, RAMAS/space and VORTEX for modelling the viability of wildlife metapopulations. Ecological Modelling 82:161-174.

McCarthy, M.A., M.A. Burgman and S. Ferson. 1995. The use of logistic regression in sensitivity analysis of population viability models. Biological Conservation 73:93-100.

Swain, H.S., P. Schmalzer, D. Breininger, K. Root, S. Boyle, S. Bergen, S. MacCaffree. 1995. Appendix B: biological consultant's report. Pages b1-b300 in Brevard County Office of Natural Resources. Scrub Conservation and Development Plan. Melbourne, FL, USA.

Akçakaya, H. R. 1994. GIS enhances endangered species conservation efforts. GIS WORLD Vol.7, November 1994, pp. 36-40.

Burgman, M., S. Ferson and D. Lindenmayer. 1994. The effect of the initial age-class distribution on extinction risks: implications for the reintroduction of Leadbeater's possum. Reintroduction Biology of the Australasian Fauna, M. Serena (ed.), Surrey Beatty, pp. 15-19.

LaHaye, W. S., R. J. Gutierrez and H. R. Akçakaya. 1994. Spotted owl metapopulation dynamics in southern California. Journal of Animal Ecology 63:775-785.

Akçakaya, H. R. 1992. Population viability analysis and risk assessment. Pages 148-157 in: Wildlife 2001: Populations. D. R. McCullough and R. H. Barrett, eds. Elsevier Publishers, London.

Akçakaya, H. R., S. Baris and R. Akçakaya. 1992. [The extinction of the Northern Bald Ibis (Geronticus eremita) population in Birecik and evaluation of conservation efforts]. Turkish Journal of Zoology 16:1-12.

Ferson, S. and H. R. Akçakaya. 1992. Quantitative software tools for conservation biology. Computer Techniques in Environmental Studies IV, P. Zannetti (ed.), Elsevier Applied Science, London, pp. 371-386.

Akçakaya, H. R. 1991. A method for simulating demographic stochasticity. Ecological Modelling 54:133-136.

Akçakaya, H. R. 1990. Bald Ibis Geronticus eremita population in Turkey: an evaluation of the captive breeding project for reintroduction. Biological Conservation 51:225-237.

Ginzburg, L.R., S. Ferson and R. Akçakaya. 1990. Reconstructibility of density dependence and the conservative assessment of extinction risks. Conservation Biology 4:63-70.

Akçakaya, H. R. 1989. An overview of bird conservation in Turkey. Sandgrouse 11:52-56.

Burgman, M., H. R. Akçakaya and S. S. Loew. 1988. The use of extinction models in species conservation. Biological Conservation 43:9-25.

Ferson, S. and M. Burgman. 1989. The dangers of being few: demographic risk analysis for rare species extinction. Ecosystem Management: Rare Species and Significant Habitats. Proceedings of the Fifteenth Natural Areas Conference, edited by R.S. Mitchell, C.J. Sheviak and D.J. Leopold. New York State Museum Bulletin 471.

Ferson, S., L. Ginzburg and A. Silvers. 1989. Extreme event risk analysis for age-structured populations. Ecological Modelling 47:175-187.

Akçakaya, H. R. and C. C. Bilgin. 1988. Evaluation of efforts to save the Bald Ibis population in Birecik. In: Proceedings of the 4th Environmental Science and Technology Conference. O. Uslu, M.M. Evirgen and A. Muezzinoglu, eds. Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey.

Bilgin, C. C. and H. R. Akçakaya. 1987. Birds. Pages 177-205 in: Biological Diversity in Turkey. A. Kence, ed. Environmental Problems Foundation, Ankara, Turkey.

Akçakaya, H. R. and R. Akçakaya. 1986. Concern for Turkey's last Bald Ibises. WWF Monthly Reports. September 1986, pp. 243-245.

Baris, S., H. R. Akçakaya, C. Bilgin. 1984. The Birds of Kizilcahamam. Birds of Turkey 3:1-36.

Biostatistics

Rohlf, F. J., H. R. Akçakaya and S. Ferraro. 1996. Optimizing composite sampling protocols. Environmental Science and Technology 30:2899-2905.

Ferson, S. 1995. Spatial cluster analysis of case-control data on childhood cancer incidences in Colorado cities. Report to Radian Corporation, Denver, Colorado.

Oden, N.L. 1993. Assessing Directional Effects in Spatial Data. Statistics in Medicine 12:1795-1805.

Downer, R., C. Kurtz and S. Ferson. 1992. Integration of environmental models in a geographical spreadsheet. Computer Techniques in Environmental Studies IV, P. Zannetti (ed.), Elsevier Applied Science, London, pp. 797-804.

Uncertainty Analysis

Ferson, S. 2002. RAMAS Risk Calc 4.0: Risk Assessment with Uncertain Numbers. Lewis Press, Boca Raton, Florida.

Regan, H.M., H.R. Akçakaya, S. Ferson, K.V. Root, S. Carroll, and L.R. Ginzburg. 2003. Treatments of uncertainty and variability in ecological risk assessment of single-species populations. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 9: 889-906.

Ferson, S. 2001. Probability bounds analysis solves the problem of incomplete specification in probabilistic risk and safety assessments. Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources IX, Y.Y. Haimes, D.A. Moser and E.Z. Stakhiv (eds.), American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, Virginia, page 173-188.

Ferson, S. 2001. Checking for errors in calculations and software: dimensional balance and conformance of units. Accountability in Research: Policies and Quality Assurance.

Colyvan, M., H.M. Regan and S. Ferson. 2001. Is it a crime to belong to a reference class? The Journal of Political Philosophy 9: 168-18. [This paper will also be published in a book on the reference class problem entitled Probability is the Very Guide of Life, H.E. Kyburg and M. Thalos (eds.), Open Court, Chicago.]

Akçakaya, H.R., S. Ferson, M.A. Burgman, D.A. Keith, G.M. Mace and C.R. Todd. 2000. Making consistent IUCN classifications under uncertainty. Conservation Biology 14:1001-1013.

Ferson, S., L.R. Ginzburg and H. R. Akçakaya. Whereof one cannot speak: when input distributions are unknown. Risk Analysis [accepted for publication].

Ferson, S. and T.F. Long. Deconvolution can reduce uncertainty in risk analyses. Risk Assessment: Measurement and Logic, M. Newman and C. Strojan (eds.), Ann Arbor Press.

Saila, S. and S. Ferson. Uncertainty analysis using simple fishery models. To appear in the 25^th anniversary volume, International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas Symposium, San Miguel, Azores.

Kreinovich, V. S. Ferson, L. Ginzburg, H. Schulte, M.R. Barry and H.T. Nguyen. 1999. From interval methods of representing uncertainty to a general description of uncertainty. Pages 161-166 in Trends in Information Technology, H. Mohanty and C. Baral (eds.), Tata McGraw-Hill Publishing, New Delhi.

Ferson, S. 1999. Quality assurance for probabilistic safety assessments. Pages 1284-1288 in Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment '99. American Nuclear Society, LaGrange Park, Illinois.

Cooper, J.A., S. Ferson and D.K. Cooper. 1999. Constrained mathematics for calculating logical safety and reliability probabilities with uncertain inputs. Sandia National Laboratories, SAND99-0146, Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Ferson, S. 1999. RAMAS Risk Calc: a microcomputer environment for probabilistic arithmetic. Page 1188-1194 in Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment '99. American Nuclear Society, LaGrange Park, Illinois.

Ferson, S. and S. Donald. 1998. Probability bounds analysis, pp. 1203-1208 in Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, A. Mosleh and R.A. Bari (eds.), Springer-Verlag, New York.

Ferson, S. and T.F. Long. 1997. Deconvolution can reduce uncertainty in risk analyses. Risk Assessment: Measurement and Logic, M. Newman and C. Strojan (eds.), Ann Arbor Press.

Ferson, S. 1997. Probability bounds analysis software. Computing in Environmental Resource Management. Proceedings of the Conference, A. Gertler (ed.), Air and Waste Management Association and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. pp. 669-678.

Ferson, S. 1996. What Monte Carlo methods cannot do. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 2:990-1007.

Ferson, S. and L.R. Ginzburg. 1996. Different methods are needed to propagate ignorance and variability. Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety 54:133-144.

Cooper, J.A., S. Ferson and L.R. Ginzburg. 1996. Hybrid processing of stochastic and subjective uncertainty data. Risk Analysis 16: 785-791.

Ginzburg, L.R., C. Janson and S. Ferson. 1996. Judgement under uncertainty: evolution may not favor a probabilistic calculus. The Behavioral and Brain Sciences 19(1):24-25.

Ferson, S. 1995. Quality assurance for Monte Carlo risk assessments. Proceedings of the 1995 Joint ISUMA/NAFIPS Conference, IEEE Computer Society Press, Los Alamitos, California, pp. 14-19.

Ferson, S. and M. Burgman. 1995. Correlations, dependency bounds and extinction risks. Biological Conservation 73:101-105.

Ferson, S. 1994. Naive Monte Carlo methods yield dangerous underestimates of tail probabilities. Proceedings of the High Consequence Operations Safety Symposium, Sandia National Laboratories, SAND94-2364, J.A. Cooper (ed.), pp. 507-514.

Ferson, S. and R. Kuhn 1994. Interactive microcomputer software for fuzzy arithmetic. Proceedings of the High Consequence Operations Safety Symposium, Sandia National Laboratories, SAND94-2364, J.A. Cooper (ed.), pp. 493-506.

Ferson, S. 1994. Using fuzzy arithmetic in Monte Carlo simulation of fishery populations. Management Strategies for Exploited Fish Populations, G. Kruse et al. (eds.), proceedings of the International Symposium on Management Strategies for Exploited Fish Populations, Anchorage, 1992, Alaska Sea Grant College Program, AK-SG-93-02, pp. 595-608.

Millstein, J.A. 1994. Propagation of measurement errors in pesticide application computations. International Journal of Pest Management 40:159-165.

Ferson, S. 1990. Ecological and environmental risk analysis: using computers to estimate impacts and uncertainties. CPSR Newsletter 8:25-28.

Food Chains and Community Dynamics

Ginzburg, L.R. and C.X.J. Jensen. 2004. Rules of thumb for judging ecological theories. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 19(3): 121-126.

Spencer, M., Ginzburg, L.R., and Goldstein, R.A. 1997. Community-level risk assessment, food chains and bioaccumulation. The Environmental Professional 19:90-97

Spencer, M. 1997. The effects of habitat size and energy on food web structure: An individual-based cellular automata model. Ecological Modelling 94: 299-316.

Spencer, M. and Warren, P.H. 1996. The effects of energy input, immigration and habitat size on food web structure: a microcosm experiment. Oecologia 108, 764-770.

Spencer, M. and Warren, P.H. 1996. The effects of habitat size and productivity on food web structure in small aquatic microcosms. Oikos 75: 419-430.

Warren, P.H. and Spencer, M. 1996. Community and food-web responses to the manipulation of energy input and disturbance in small ponds. Oikos 75: 407-418.

Akçakaya, H. R., R. Arditi, and L.R. Ginzburg. 1995. Ratio-dependent predation: an abstraction that works. Ecology 76:995-1004.

McCarthy, M.A., L.R. Ginzburg and H. R. Akçakaya. 1995. Predator interference across trophic chains. Ecology 76:1310-1319.

Ginzburg, L.R. and D.E. Taneyhill. 1994. Population cycles of Lepidoptera: a maternal effect hypothesis. Journal of Animal Ecology 63:79-92.

Akçakaya, H. R. 1992. Population cycles of mammals: evidence for a ratio-dependent predation hypothesis. Ecological Monographs 62:119-142.

Ginzburg, L.R. and H. R. Akçakaya. 1992. Consequences of ratio-dependent predation for steady state properties of ecosystems. Ecology 73:1536-1543.

Akçakaya, H. R. and L. R. Ginzburg. 1991. Community construction: speciation versus invasion. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 6:100-101.

Arditi, R., L. R. Ginzburg, H. R. Akçakaya. 1991. Variation in plankton densities among lakes: a case for ratio-dependent predation models. The American Naturalist 138:1287-1296.

Arditi, R. and H. R. Akçakaya. 1990. Underestimation of mutual interference of predators. Oecologia 83:358-361.

Akçakaya, H. R. and L. R. Ginzburg. 1989. Niche overlaps and the evolution of competitive interactions. Pages 32-42 in: Evolutionary Biology of Transient Unstable Populations. A. Fontdevila, ed. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.

Akçakaya, H. R., L. R. Ginzburg, D. Slice and L. B. Slobodkin. 1988. The theory of population dynamics: II. Physiological delays. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 50:503-515.

Ginzburg, L. R., H. R. Akçakaya and J. Kim. 1988. Evolution of community structure: Competition. Journal of Theoretical Biology 133:513-523

Ginzburg, L. R., H. R. Akçakaya, D. Slice and L. B. Slobodkin. 1988. Balanced growth rates vs. balanced accelerations as causes of ecological equilibria. Pages 165-175 in: Biomathematics and Related Computational Problems. R. M. Ricciardi, ed. Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Human Health

Ferson, S. 1996. What Monte Carlo methods cannot do. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 2:990-1007.

Ferson, S. 1995. Spatial cluster analysis of case-control data on childhood cancer incidences in Colorado cities. Report to Radian Corporation, Denver, Colorado.

Jacquez, G.M. 1993. The statistical description of disease clusters. Statistics in Medicine 12:1967-1968,

Jacquez, G.M. and Kheifets, L.I. 1993. Synthetic cancer variables and the construction and testing of synthetic risk maps. Statistics in Medicine 12:1931-1942.

Ecotoxicology

Roelofs, W., Crocker, D.R., Shore, R.F., Moore, D.R.J., Smith, G.C., Akçakaya, H.R., Bennett, R.S., Chapman, P.F., Clook, M., Crane, M., Dewhurst, I.C., Edwards, P.J., Fairbrother, A., Ferson, S., Fischer, D., Hart, A.D.M., Holmes, M., Hooper, M.J., Lavine, M., Leopold, A., Luttik, R., Mineau, P., Mortenson, S.R., Noble, D.G., O'Connor, R.J., Sibly, R.M., Spendiff, M., Springer, T.A. and Thompson, H.M., Topping, C. 2005. Case Study Part 2: Probabilistic modelling of long-term effects of pesticides on individual breeding success in birds and mammals. Ecotoxicology 14 (8): 895 - 923.

Shore, R.F., Crocker, D.R., Akçakaya, H.R., Bennett, R.S., Chapman, P.F., Clook, M., Crane, M., Dewhurst, I.C., Edwards, P.J., Fairbrother, A., Ferson, S., Fischer, D., Hart, A.D.M., Holmes, M., Hooper, M.J., Lavine, M., Leopold, A., Luttik, R., Mineau, P., Moore, D.R.J., Mortenson, S.R., Noble, D.G., O'Connor, R.J., Roelofs, W., Sibly, R.M., Smith, G., Spendiff, M., Springer, T.A., Thompson, H.M. and Topping, C. 2005. Case Study Part 1: How to Calculate Appropriate Deterministic Long-term Toxicity to Exposure Ratios (TERs) for Birds and Mammals. Ecotoxicology 14 (8): 877 - 893.

Sibly, R. M. Akçakaya HR, Topping C, O'Connor RJ. 2005. Population-level assessment of risks of pesticides to birds and mammals in the UK. Ecotoxicology 14 (8): 863-876.

Topping C.J., Sibly R.M., Akçakaya H.R., Smith G.C., Crocker, D.R. 2005. Risk assessment of UK skylark populations using life-history and individual-based landscape models. Ecotoxicology 14 (8): 925-936.

Spencer, M., Ginzburg, L.R., and Goldstein, R.A. 1997. Community-level risk assessment, food chains and bioaccumulation. The Environmental Professional 19, 90-97.

Ferson, S., L.R. Ginzburg and R.A. Goldstein. 1996. Inferring ecotoxicological risk from toxicity bioassays. Water, Air and Soil Pollution 90:71-82.

Millstein, J.A. 1995. Simulating extremes in pesticide misapplication from backpack sprayers. International Journal of Pest Management 41:36-45.

Goldstein, R. and S. Ferson. 1994. Response of plants to interacting stresses (ROPIS): program rationale, design and implications. Journal of Environmental Quality 23:407-411.

Remediation

Ferson, S. and T.F. Long. Deconvolution can reduce uncertainty in risk analyses. Risk Assessment: Measurement and Logic, M. Newman and C. Strojan (eds.), Ann Arbor Press.

Ferson, S. 1995. Using approximate deconvolution to estimate cleanup targets in probabilistic risk analyses, pages 239-248 in Hydrocarbon Contaminated Soils, P. Kostecki (ed). Amherst Scientific Press, Amherst, Massachusetts.

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