Stochastic Cell Proliferation Models

Stochastic cell proliferation models of carcinogenesis:
Microcomputer software for research and risk analysis

Scott Ferson

funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH)
and the Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology (CIIT)

        Quantitative models of carcinogenesis that are based on stochastic proliferation of cell types have been suggested by several researchers. For the most part, these models exist only as equations in articles, or, in a few cases, as specialized and non-portable software implementations. The consequence of this is that the models are not accessible to a broad audience of biologists who are impeded by the rigorous mathematics of the theoretical treatment or the awkwardness or unavailability of software. We propose to develop easy-to-use microcomputer software in which the variety of important models of carcinogensis are implemented in a generalized package. From this platform researchers will be able to increase their intuition by exploring the consequences of the various assumptions made by the disparate models, as well as construct new models from the building blocks of basic assumptions about model structure, cell kinetics and mutation rates. Empirical toxicologists who possess data on dosage-dependent cancer incidence will also be able to use the software to estimate the risk or probability of tumorigenesis under any of the competing models. This software will permit users to develop their intuition about the competing models of carcinogensis, and make projections about the immediate hazards of carcinogenesis from a particular substance in a particular system.

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