This tutorial explains how you can develop a fully probabilistic risk analysis even though there may be very little empirical data available on which to base the analysis. It compares the strengths and weakness of various approaches.
Synopsis Overview of topics Presenters Registration Venue and hotel More information Related links
This full-day tutorial introduces and compares methods for developing a probabilistic risk analysis when little or no empirical data are available to inform the risk model. The talks are organized around the basic problems that risk analysts face: not knowing the input distributions, not knowing their correlations, not being sure about the model itself, or even which variables should be considered. Possible strategies include traditional approximative methods and recent robust and bounding methods. Numerical examples are given that illustrate the use of various methods including traditional moment propagation, PERT, maximum entropy, uniformity principle, probability bounds analysis, Bayesian model averaging and the old work horse, sensitivity analysis.
All of the approaches can be used to develop a fully probabilistic estimate useful for screening decisions and other planning. The advantages and drawbacks of the various approaches are examined. The discussion addresses how defensible decisions can be made even when little information is available, and when one should break down and collect more empirical data and, in that case, what data to collect. When properly formulated, a probabilistic risk analysis reveals what can be inferred from available information and characterizes the reliability of those inferences. In cases, where the available information is insufficient to reach dispositive conclusions, bounding probabilistic risk analysis provides a compelling argument for further empirical research and data collection.
The presentation style of the tutorial will be casual and interactive. Participants will receive a booklet of the illustrations and numerical examples used during the tutorial.
Scott Ferson is a senior scientist at Applied Biomathematics where his research focuses on developing reliable mathematical and statistical tools for risk assessments and on methods for uncertainty analysis when empirical information is very sparse. Ferson holds a Ph.D. from the State University of New York at Stony Brook. He is author of RAMAS Risk Calc Software 4.0: Risk Assessment with Uncertain Numbers (Lewis Publishers). He has written over 100 other scholarly publications, including four other books and several software packages, in environmental risk analysis and uncertainty propagation. His research has addressed quality assurance for Monte Carlo assessments, backcalculation methods for use in remediation planning, and distribution-free methods of risk analysis appropriate for use in information-poor situations.
Jack Siegrist is a quantitative ecologist in the Ecology and Evolution Graduate Program in the Department of Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources
at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey. He holds degrees from University of Texas at Austin and Southeastern Louisiana University. He is also a research scientist at Applied Biomathematics
where his research focuses on risk perception, uncertainty comparisons, and combinatorial methods for detecting clusters in small data sets.
The registration fee is $250 by 5 November, or $300 on site. You do not need to register for the Annual Meeting to attend the workshop. Registration will be handled by
The workshop will be 8:00 - 5:00 on Sunday, 5 December 2010, at the Salt Palace Convention Center directly across the street from the Salt Lake City Marriott Downtown which is the conference hotel.
 Hotel accommodations: Salt Lake City Marriott Downtown |
Salt Lake City Marriott Downtown 75 South West Temple Salt Lake City, Utah 84101 On-line reservations at http://cwp.marriott.com/slcut/sra/ Phone: 1-801-531-0800 (not toll-free) Fax: 1-801-532-4127 Toll-free: 1-800-468-3571 |
Workshop meeting place: Salt Palace Convention Center |
The meeting room for the workshop has not yet been determined; check with the hotel concierge or convention center signage in the morning, or the night before, for directions to the meeting room.
Reserve a room at the conference hotel at the SRA rate of $119 per night (single/double occupancy) plus 6.8% tax. Be sure to mention the Society for Risk Analysis to receive the SRA group rate. This rate is also available up to three days before or after the SRA meeting, subject to availability. Reserve your room early. The SRA rate will be available until 12 November 2010, or until the SRA block of rooms is sold out. The base room rate thereafter is variable between $199 and $219, plus taxes and fees. Cancellations must be made 48 hours in advance to avoid a cancellation charge of one night's cost. You can make hotel reservations on line at http://cwp.marriott.com/slcut/sra/ or by telephoning 1-801-531-0800 or (toll-free) 1-800-468-3571. Be sure to mention the SRA when making a reservation. Reserving on-line may be considerably easier than reserving by telephone. For more information about the hotel, see the hotel fact sheet, a map of the area, or driving directions.
Weather in Salt Lake City is likely to be cold and dry in early December. The average high temperature in Salt Lake City in early December is 40 °F (5 °C) and the average low is 24 °F (-5 °C).
If there is sufficient interest, the workshop will be repeated on Thursday, 9 December 2010. To indicate your desire to attend the Thursday workshop, please email Scott Ferson at with "Thursday" in the subject line on or before 1 November 2010. We will work with interested participants to make the necessary arrangements.
More information can be obtained from Scott Ferson , telephone 1-631-751-4350, fax 1-631-751–3435.
Society for Risk Analysis www.sra.org
Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting http://www.sra.org/events_2010_meeting.php
Hotel reservations http://cwp.marriott.com/slcut/sra/
Hotel fact sheet http://www.marriott.com/hotels/fact-sheet/travel/slcut-salt-lake-city-marriott-downtown/
Salt Palace Convention Center http://www.visitsaltlake.com/saltpalace/
Salt Lake City Wikipedia entry http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salt_Lake_City
Weather in Salt Lake City http://www.wunderground.com/US/UT/Salt_Lake_City.html
The Imprecise Probabilities Project http://www.sipta.org/
Sandia National Laboratories' Epistemic Uncertainty Project http://www.sandia.gov/epistemic/
Intervals and Probability Distributions website http://ifsc.ualr.edu/jdberleant/intprob/
NSF workshop on risk perception and communication http://www.ramas.com/riskcomm.htm
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