Probabilistic Risk Analysis With Hardly Any Data
A tutorial workshopto be held in conjunction with the
Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting
8:00 - 5:00 pmSunday, 7 December 2008
The Westin Boston Waterfront
Boston, Massachusetts
This tutorial explains how you can develop a fully probabilistic risk analysis even though there may be very little empirical data available on which to base the analysis. It compares the strengths and weakness of various approaches.
Synopsis Overview of topics Presenters Registration Venue in Boston More information Related links
This full-day tutorial introduces and compares methods for developing a probabilistic risk analysis when little or no empirical data are available to inform the risk model. The talks are organized around the basic problems that risk analysts face: not knowing the input distributions, not knowing their correlations, not being sure about the model itself, or even which variables should be considered. Possible strategies include traditional approximative methods and recent robust and bounding methods. Numerical examples are given that illustrate the use of various methods including traditional moment propagation, PERT, maximum entropy, uniformity principle, probability bounds analysis, Bayesian model averaging and the old work horse, sensitivity analysis.
All of the approaches can be used to develop a fully probabilistic estimate useful for screening decisions and other planning. The advantages and drawbacks of the various approaches are examined. The discussion addresses how defensible decisions can be made even when little information is available, and when one should break down and collect more empirical data and, in that case, what data to collect. When properly formulated, a probabilistic risk analysis reveals what can be inferred from available information and characterizes the reliability of those inferences. In cases, where the available information is insufficient to reach dispositive conclusions, bounding probabilistic risk analysis provides a compelling argument for further empirical research and data collection.
The presentation style of the tutorial will be casual and interactive. Participants will receive a booklet of the illustrations and numerical examples used during the tutorial and a CD with these files for their personal use.
Scott Ferson is a senior scientist at Applied Biomathematics. His research focuses on developing reliable mathematical and statistical tools for risk assessments and on methods for uncertainty analysis when empirical information is very sparse. Ferson holds a Ph.D. from the State University of New York at Stony Brook. He is author of RAMAS Risk Calc Software 4.0: Risk Assessment with Uncertain Numbers (Lewis Publishers). He has written over 100 other scholarly publications, including four other books and several software packages, in environmental risk analysis and uncertainty propagation. His research has addressed quality assurance for Monte Carlo assessments, exact methods for detecting clusters in small data sets, backcalculation methods for use in remediation planning, and distribution-free methods of risk analysis appropriate for use in information-poor situations.
W. Troy Tucker is a specialist in grants development at Suffolk County Community College and, until recently, a reasearch scientist at Applied Biomathematics. Tucker holds a Ph.D. from the University of New Mexico. His research focuses on anthropology, human ecology, risk communication, and visualization of uncertainty. He organized a National Science Foundation workshop on risk perception and communication and is editing the forthcomming proceedings for the New York Academy of Sciences. His research has spanned many areas in risk analysis, uncertainty propagation, and human perception of risks and uncertainties, including work in human and ecological assessments for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, developing uncertainty propagation tools for "extreme engineering" design for NASA, and uncertainty visualization software for the pharmaceutical industry.
The registration fee is $245 by 7 November, or $295 on site. You do not need to register for the Annual Meeting to attend the workshop. Registration will be handled by
The workshop will be 8:00 - 5:00 on Sunday, 7 December 2008, in historic and beautiful Boston at
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Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel 425 Summer Street Boston, Massachusetts 02210 USA http://www.starwoodmeeting.com/Book/SRA (on-line reservations) 1-800-WESTIN-1 (toll-free reservations from with the USA) 1-617-532-4600 (direct to the hotel) 1-617-532-4630 (fax) |
The meeting room for the workshop has not yet been determined; check with the hotel concierge on Sunday morning for directions to the meeting room.
Reserve a room at the hotel on or before 14 November 2008 to obtain the SRA rate of $155 per night (single/double occupancy) plus 12.5% tax. Be sure to mention the Society for Risk Analysis to receive the SRA group rate. This rate is available as early as 4 December, subject to availability. Remember the cut off for this rate is 14 November 2008, or until the SRA room block is sold out. The base room rate thereafter will be $188. Reserve your room early. Cancellations must be made at least 48 hours in advance. You can make hotel reservations on line or by telephoning 1-617-532-4600 or (toll-free) 1-800-WESTIN-1. Be sure to mention the SRA when making a reservation. For more information about the venue, see the hotel fact sheet, a map of the area, or driving directions.
Weather in Boston is likely to be cold and may be wet in early December. The average high temperature in Boston in early December is 45 °F (8 °C) and the average low is 31 °F (0 °C).
More information can be obtained from Scott Ferson scott@ramas.com, telephone 1-631-751-4350, fax 1-631-751–3435.
Society for Risk Analysis www.sra.org
Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting http://www.sra.org/events_2008_meeting.php
Hotel reservations http://www.starwoodmeeting.com/Book/SRA
Hotel fact sheet http://www.starwoodhotels.com/westin/property/overview/index.html?propertyID=1528
Boston Wikipedia entry http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston
Weather in Boston http://weather.boston.com/
The Imprecise Probabilities Project http://www.sipta.org/
Sandia National Laboratories' Epistemic Uncertainty Project http://www.sandia.gov/epistemic/
Intervals and Probability Distributions website http://ifsc.ualr.edu/jdberleant/intprob/
NSF workshop on risk perception and communication http://www.ramas.com/riskcomm.htm