Probabilistic Risk Analysis With Hardly Any Data
A tutorial workshopto be held in conjunction with the
Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting
8:00 - 5:00 pmSunday, 9 December 2007
Marriott Riverwalk Hotel
San Antonio, Texas
This tutorial explains how you can develop a fully probabilistic risk analysis even though there may be very little empirical data available on which to base the analysis. It compares the strengths and weakness of various approaches.
Synopsis Overview of topics Presenters Registration Venue
This full-day tutorial introduces and compares methods for developing a probabilistic risk analysis when little or no empirical data are available to inform the risk model. The talks are organized around the basic problems that risk analysts face: not knowing the input distributions, not knowing their correlations, not being sure about the model itself, or even which variables should be considered. Possible strategies include traditional approximative methods and recent robust and bounding methods. Numerical examples are given that illustrate the use of various methods including traditional moment propagation, PERT, maximum entropy, uniformity principle, probability bounds analysis, Bayesian model averaging and the old work horse, sensitivity analysis.
All of the approaches can be used to develop a fully probabilistic estimate useful for screening decisions and other planning. The advantages and drawbacks of the various approaches are examined. The discussion addresses how defensible decisions can be made even when little information is available, and when one should break down and collect more empirical data and, in that case, what data to collect. When properly formulated, a probabilistic risk analysis reveals what can be inferred from available information and characterizes the reliability of those inferences. In cases, where the available information is insufficient to reach dispositive conclusions, bounding probabilistic risk analysis provides a compelling argument for further empirical research and data collection.
The presentation style of the tutorial will be casual and interactive. Participants will receive a booklet of the illustrations and numerical examples used during the tutorial and a CD with these files for their personal use.
Scott Ferson is a senior scientist at Applied Biomathematics. His research focuses on developing reliable mathematical and statistical tools for risk assessments and on methods for uncertainty analysis when empirical information is very sparse. Ferson holds a Ph.D. from the State University of New York at Stony Brook. He is author of RAMAS Risk Calc Software 4.0: Risk Assessment with Uncertain Numbers (Lewis Publishers). He has written over 100 other scholarly publications, including four other books and several software packages, in environmental risk analysis and uncertainty propagation. His research has addressed quality assurance for Monte Carlo assessments, exact methods for detecting clusters in small data sets, backcalculation methods for use in remediation planning, and distribution-free methods of risk analysis appropriate for use in information-poor situations.
W. Troy Tucker is a reasearch scientist at Applied Biomathematics. Tucker holds a Ph.D. from the University of New Mexico. His research focuses on anthropology, human ecology, risk communication, and visualization of uncertainty. He organized a National Science Foundation workshop on risk perception and communication and is editing the forthcomming proceedings for the New York Academy of Sciences. His research has spanned many areas in risk analysis, uncertainty propagation, and human perception of risks and uncertainties, including work in human and ecological assessments for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, developing uncertainty propagation tools for "extreme engineering" design for NASA, and uncertainty visualization software for the pharmaceutical industry.
The registration fee is $240 by 9 November, or $290 on site. You do not need to register for the Annual Meeting to attend the workshop. Registration will be handled by
The venue for the workshops and hotel rooms has been changed! The event will be held 8:00 - 5:00 on Sunday, 9 December 2007, at
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San Antonio Marriott Riverwalk 889 East Market Street San Antonio, Texas 78205 USA 1-800-648-4462 (toll-free reservations) 1-210-224-4555 (direct to the hotel) 1-210-224-2754 (fax) http://www.marriott.com/hotels/travel/satdt-san-antonio-marriott-riverwalk/ www.marriott.com |
The meeting room for the workshop has not yet been determined; check with the hotel concierge on Sunday morning for directions to the meeting room.
Reserve a room at the hotel on or before 16 November 2007 to obtain the SRA rate of $159 per night (single occupancy) or $174 per night (double occupancy) plus 16.75% tax. Be sure to mention the Society for Risk Analysis to receive the SRA group rate. This rate is available for stays between 7 and 12 December 2007, subject to availability. Remember the cut off for this rate is 16 November 2007, or until the SRA room block is sold out. Reserve your room early. Cancellations must be made at least 48 hours in advance. You can make hotel reservations on line or by telephoning 1-210-224-4555 or (toll-free) 1-800-648-4462. To receive the SRA conference rate when registering online, you will need to enter one of the following "group codes" for a single/double room (soasoaa), triple room (soasoab), or quad (soasoad). See the hotel fact sheet for a description of the venue and directions.
The average high temperature in San Antonio in early December is 65 °F (18 °C) and the average low is 42 °F (5 °C). The hotel is next to San Antonio's beautiful River Walk (Paseo del Rio).
More information can be obtained from Scott Ferson scott@ramas.com, telephone 1-631-751-4350, fax 1-631-751–3435.
Society for Risk Analysis www.sra.org
Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting http://sra.org/events_2007_meeting.php
Hotel reservations http://www.marriott.com/hotels/travel/satdt-san-antonio-marriott-riverwalk/
Hotel fact sheet http://www.marriott.com/hotels/fact-sheet/travel/satdt-san-antonio-marriott-riverwalk/
Weather in San Antonio http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/San_Antonio.html
San Antonio Visitors and Convention Bureau http://www.sanantoniocvb.com/
San Antonio River Walk (Paseo del Rio) http://www.thesanantonioriverwalk.com/
San Antonio Wikipedia entry http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Antonio,_Texas
The Imprecise Probabilities Project http://www.sipta.org/
Sandia National Laboratories' Epistemic Uncertainty Project http://www.sandia.gov/epistemic/
Intervals and Probability Distributions website http://ifsc.ualr.edu/jdberleant/intprob.html
NSF workshop on risk perception and communication http://www.ramas.com/riskcomm.htm