Extensions to Probabilistic Risk Analysis Using Possibilistic Mathematics

A tutorial workshop
to be held in conjunction with the

Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

8:00 am - 12:00 pm
Sunday, 9 December 2007

San Antonio Marriott Riverwalk
San Antonio, Texas

This half-day workshop introduces a family of mathematical structures that help in estimating risk and propagating uncertainty in quantitative analyses where objective data are limited.

Synopsis
Overview of topics
Presenters
Registration
Venue
More information
Related links

Synopsis

This half-day workshop introduces a family of mathematical structures, many built around possibility theory (including fuzzy mathematics), for estimating risk and propagating uncertainty in quantitative analyses where objective data are limited. These analyses, while less powerful than conventional analyses where data are abundant, can be effective tools for situations involving sparse data. As one example for utilizing uncertain parameters, we show that interval analysis (when used with care) has features that serve as a basis for more sophisticated mathematical structures. Some of the details can be subtle, and inattention to these details can lead to overly large bounds or erroneous conclusions. Consequently, some of the topics will be: (1) how the math you are tempted to use can hurt you, (2) how to mathematically specify inputs when data are sparse, (3) comparison with other (e.g., conventional) methods of uncertainty analysis, and (4) combining possibility and probability theories in a hybrid analysis. The methods will be applied to several examples and case studies, including fault tree and event tree assessment, as well as “latent effects analysis.” Participants will be expected to share their individual backgrounds and experiences as applicable to the approaches addressed. Handout “notebooks” will provide copies of the slides used and supporting material, with room for note-taking.

Overview of topics

This proposed workshop is an updated version of and similar to a previous series of successful SRA workshops by the author and Scott Ferson on interval and fuzzy analysis.

Framework of conventional analysis
Problems that are not readily amenable to conventional analysis
Counter-intuitive situations, traps, common misconceptions
Interval numbers, corresponding mathematical structures
Deriving and portraying inputs and outputs
Constrained mathematics and effects on uncertainty/variability ranges
Backcalculation situations that can confound expectations
Possibilistic and fuzzy mathematical analysis
Dependence effects and means of addressing them
Latent effects analysis and soft aggregation
Hybrid analysis, combining the best features of the constituents

Presenter

Dr. Arlin Cooper is a Sandia Laboratories retired Distinguished Senior Scientist, who has several books and patents. His background is mainly in mathematical safety assessment methodologies.

Registration

The registration fee is $175 by 9 November, or $200 on site. You do not need to register for the Annual Meeting to attend the workshop. Registration will be handled by

Secretariat sra@burkinc.com
Society for Risk Analysis www.sra.org
1313 Dolley Madison Boulevard, Suite 402
McLean, Virginia 22101 USA
Telephone 1-703-790-1745, Fax 1-703-790-2672

Venue

The event will be held 8:00 - 12:00 on Sunday, 9 December 2007, at

San Antonio Marriott Riverwalk
889 East Market Street
San Antonio, Texas 78205 USA
1-800-648-4462 (toll-free reservations)
1-210-224-4555 (direct to the hotel)
1-210-224-2754 (fax)
http://www.marriott.com/hotels/travel/satdt-san-antonio-marriott-riverwalk/
www.marriott.com

The meeting room for the workshop has not yet been determined; check with the hotel concierge on Sunday morning for directions to the meeting room.

Reserve a room at the hotel on or before 16 November 2007 to obtain the SRA rate of $159 per night (single occupancy) or $174 per night (double occupancy) plus 16.75% tax. Be sure to mention the Society for Risk Analysis to receive the SRA group rate. This rate is available for stays between 7 and 12 December 2007, subject to availability. Remember the cut off for this rate is 16 November 2007, or until the SRA room block is sold out. Reserve your room early. Cancellations must be made at least 48 hours in advance. You can make hotel reservations on line or by telephoning 1-210-224-4555 or (toll-free) 1-800-648-4462. To receive the SRA conference rate when registering online, you will need to enter one of the following "group codes" for a single/double room (soasoaa), triple room (soasoab), or quad (soasoad). See the hotel fact sheet for a description of the venue and directions.

The average high temperature in San Antonio in early December is 65 °F (18 °C) and the average low is 42 °F (5 °C). The hotel is next to San Antonio's beautiful River Walk (Paseo del Rio).

More information

More information can be obtained from Arlin Cooper arlincooper@msn.com, telephone 1-505-508-1400, fax 1-505-845–8711.