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Applied Population Ecology
Applied Population Ecology

Principles and Computer Exercises using RAMAS EcoLab 2.0

by H. Resit Akçakaya, Mark A. Burgman, Lev Ginzburg

TABLE OF CONTENTS

See also:
Foreword by Robert Goldstein
Foreword by Mark Shaffer
Preface
To the teacher
Acknowlegements

Chapter 1 Population growth 1
    1.1 Introduction 1
      1.1.1 Definition of a population 2
      1.1.2 Limits to survival and reproduction: niche and habitat 2
      1.1.3 Mathematical models in population ecology 5
    1.2 Births and deaths, immigrants and emigrants 7
      1.2.1 Exponential growth 8
      1.2.2 Long-lived species 9
      1.2.3 Using the model 10
    1.2.4 Doubling time 12
      1.2.5 Migration, harvesting and translocation 13
    1.3 Assumptions of the exponential growth model 14
    1.4 Applications 16
      1.4.1 Human population growth 16
      1.4.2 Explosions of pest densities 21
      1.4.3 Exponential decline 23
    1.5 Additional topic 26
      1.5.1 Population growth in continuous time 26
    1.6 Exercises 27
      Exercise 1.1: Blue Whale recovery 27
      Exercise 1.2: Human population, 1800-1995 28
      Exercise 1.3: Human population, 1995-2035 30
    1.7 Further reading 31
  Chapter 2 Variation 33
  2.1 Introduction 33
  2.1.1 Vocabulary for population dynamics and variability 34
  2.1.2 Variation and uncertainty 36
  2.1.3 Kinds of uncertainty 36
  2.2 Natural variation 37
  2.2.1 Individual variation 37
  2.2.2 Demographic stochasticity 38
  2.2.3 Environmental variation 45
  2.3 Parameter and model uncertainty 54
  2.3.1 Parameter uncertainty 54
  2.3.2 Model uncertainty 55
  2.3.3 Sensitivity analysis 56
  2.4 Ambiguity and ignorance 58
  2.5 Additional topics 59
  2.5.1 Time to extinction 59
  2.5.2 Estimating variation 60
  2.6 Exercises 61
  Exercise 2.1: Accounting for demographic stochasticity 61
  Exercise 2.2: Building a model of Muskox 62
  Exercise 2.3: Constructing risk curves 64
  Exercise 2.4 Sensitivity analysis 67
  2.7 Further reading 69
  Chapter 3 Population regulation 71
  3.1 Introduction 7
  3.2 Effects of crowding 7
  3.2.1 Increased mortality 72
  3.2.2 Decreased reproduction 73
  3.2.3 Self-thinning 74
  3.2.4 Territories 75
  3.3 Types of density dependence 76
  3.3.1 Scramble competition 77
  3.3.2 Contest competition 83
  3.3.3 Ceiling model 85
  3.3.4 Allee effects 86
  3.3.5 The concept of carrying capacity 89
  3.3.6 Carrying capacity for the human population 90
  3.4 Assumptions of density-dependent models 91
  3.5 Cycles and chaos 91
  3.6 Harvesting and density dependence 92
  3.7 Adding environmental variation 94
  3.8 Additional topics 95
  3.8.1 Equations 95
  3.8.2 Estimating density dependence parameters 97
  3.9 Exercises 98
  Exercise 3.1: Gause's experiment with Paramecium 98
  Exercise 3.2: Adding stochasticity to density dependence 99
  Exercise 3.3: Exploring differences between density dependence types 100
  Exercise 3.4: Demonstrating chaos 101
  Exercise 3.5: Density dependence and harvesting 102
  Exercise 3.6: Density independence graphs 104
  3.10 Further reading 104
  Chapter 4 Age structure 105
  4.1 Introduction 105
  4.2 Assumptions of age-structured models 107
  4.3 An age-structured model for the Helmeted Honeyeater 108
  4.3.1 Survival rates 109
  4.3.2 Fecundities 111
  4.3.3 Sex ratio 113
  4.4 The Leslie matrix 113
  4.4.1 Leslie matrix for Helmeted Honeyeaters 115
  4.4.2 Projection with the Leslie matrix 117
  4.4.3 Stable age distribution 119
  4.4.4 Reproductive value 121
  4.5 Adding Stochasticity 123
  4.5.1 Demographic stochasticity 123
  4.5.2 Environmental stochasticity 125
  4.6 Life Tables 127
  4.6.1 The survivorship schedule 128
  4.6.2 The maternity (fertility) schedule 130
  4.6.3 Life history parameters 131
  4.6.4 Life table assumptions 132
  4.7 Additional topics 133
  4.7.1 Estimating survivals and fecundities 133
  4.7.2 Estimating a Leslie matrix from a life table 136
  4.7.3 Estimating variation 141
  4.8 Exercises 143
  Exercise 4.1: Building the Helmeted Honeyeater model 144
  Exercise 4.2: Human demography 148
  Exercise 4.3: Leslie matrix for Brook Trout 149
  Exercise 4.4: Fishery management 152
  4.9 Further reading 155
  Chapter 5 Stage structure 157
  5.1 Introduction 157
  5.2 Assumptions of stage-structured models 158
  5.3 Stage structure based on size 159
  5.4 A stage model for an Alder 161
  5.5 Building stage-structured models 163
  5.5.1 Residence times, stable distribution and reproductive value 165
  5.5.2 Constraints 166
  5.5.3 Adding density dependence 167
  5.6 Sensitivity analysis 168
  5.6.1 Planning field research 168
  5.6.2 Evaluating management options 170
  5.7 Additional topics 171
  5.7.1 Estimation of stage matrix 171
  5.8 Exercises 174
  Exercise 5.1: Reverse transitions 174
  Exercise 5.2: Modelling a perennial plant 174
  Exercise 5.3: Sea Turtle conservation 176
  Exercise 5.4: Sensitivity analysis 178
  5.9 Further reading 181
  Chapter 6 Metapopulations and spatial structure 183
  6.1 Introduction 183
  6.1.1 Spatial heterogeneity 185
  6.1.2 Habitat loss and fragmentation 186
  6.1.3 Island biogeography 187
  6.2 Metapopulation dynamics 190
  6.2.1 Geographic configuration 191
  6.2.2 Spatial correlation of environmental variation 191
  6.2.3 Dispersal patterns 193
  6.2.4 Interaction between dispersal and correlation 196
  6.2.5 Assumptions of metapopulation models 197
  6.3 Applications 199
  6.3.1 Reintroduction and translocation 200
  6.3.2 Corridors and reserve design 201
  6.3.3 Impact assessment: fragmentation 202
  6.4 Exercises 203
  An overview of the program 203
  Exercise 6.1: Spatial factors and extinction risks 205
  Exercise 6.2: Habitat loss 209
  Exercise 6.3: Designing reserves for the Spotted Owl 210
  6.5 Further reading 212
  Chapter 7 Population viability analysis 213
  7.1 Introduction 213
  7.2 Extinction 214
  7.2.1 Extinction in geological time 215
  7.2.2 Current extinction rates 216
  7.2.3 The causes of extinction 220
  7.2.4 Classification of threat 222
  7.3 Components of population viability analysis 224
  7.3.1 Identification of the question and estimation of parameters 224
  7.3.2 Modeling, risk assessment, sensitivity analysis 228
  7.3.3 Cost-benefit analysis 228
  7.3.4 Implementation, monitoring, evaluation 231
  7.4 The limits of population viability analysis 232
  7.5 Exercises 234
  Exercise 7.1: Habitat management for Gnatcatchers 234
  Exercise 7.2: Comparing management options 236
  Exercise 7.3: Habitat loss and fragmentation 238
  7.6 Further reading 240
  Chapter 8 Decision-making and natural resource management 241
  8.1 Introduction 241
  8.2 Detecting impact 242
  8.2.1 Power, importance and significance: an example 244
  8.2.2 The precautionary principle 247
  8.3 Managing natural resources 248
  8.3.1 Predicting the outcome 248
  8.3.2 Explaining the uncertainty 249
  8.3.3 Model uncertainty: the importance of detail 252
  8.3.4 Strategies and contingencies 253
  8.4 The economic and ecological contexts of natural resource management 254
  8.4.1 Uncertainty and sustainability 256
  8.4.2 The role of applied population ecologists 257
  8.5 Exercises 259
  Exercise 8.1: Statistical power and environmental detection 259
  Exercise 8.2: Sustainable catch revisited 261
  Exercise 8.3: Sustainable use 263
  8.6 Further reading 265
  Appendix: RAMAS EcoLab Installation and Use 267
  References 273
  Index 281
 
  Also see:
Textbook description
RAMAS EcoLab features
Preface
Foreword by Mark Shaffer
Review by Don Waller in Quarterly Review of Biology
Review by Saul Saila in Fisheries

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