Table of Contents |
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by H. Resit Akçakaya, Mark A. Burgman, Lev Ginzburg See also:Foreword by Robert Goldstein |
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| Chapter 1 Population growth | 1 | |||
| 1.1 Introduction | 1 | |||
| 1.1.1 Definition of a population | 2 | |||
| 1.1.2 Limits to survival and reproduction: niche and habitat | 2 | |||
| 1.1.3 Mathematical models in population ecology | 5 | |||
| 1.2 Births and deaths, immigrants and emigrants | 7 | |||
| 1.2.1 Exponential growth | 8 | |||
| 1.2.2 Long-lived species | 9 | |||
| 1.2.3 Using the model | 10 | |||
| 1.2.4 Doubling time | 12 | |||
| 1.2.5 Migration, harvesting and translocation | 13 | |||
| 1.3 Assumptions of the exponential growth model | 14 | |||
| 1.4 Applications | 16 | |||
| 1.4.1 Human population growth | 16 | |||
| 1.4.2 Explosions of pest densities | 21 | |||
| 1.4.3 Exponential decline | 23 | |||
| 1.5 Additional topic | 26 | |||
| 1.5.1 Population growth in continuous time | 26 | |||
| 1.6 Exercises | 27 | |||
| Exercise 1.1: Blue Whale recovery | 27 | |||
| Exercise 1.2: Human population, 1800-1995 | 28 | |||
| Exercise 1.3: Human population, 1995-2035 | 30 | |||
| 1.7 Further reading | 31 | |||
| Chapter 2 Variation | 33 | |||
| 2.1 Introduction | 33 | |||
| 2.1.1 Vocabulary for population dynamics and variability | 34 | |||
| 2.1.2 Variation and uncertainty | 36 | |||
| 2.1.3 Kinds of uncertainty | 36 | |||
| 2.2 Natural variation | 37 | |||
| 2.2.1 Individual variation | 37 | |||
| 2.2.2 Demographic stochasticity | 38 | |||
| 2.2.3 Environmental variation | 45 | |||
| 2.3 Parameter and model uncertainty | 54 | |||
| 2.3.1 Parameter uncertainty | 54 | |||
| 2.3.2 Model uncertainty | 55 | |||
| 2.3.3 Sensitivity analysis | 56 | |||
| 2.4 Ambiguity and ignorance | 58 | |||
| 2.5 Additional topics | 59 | |||
| 2.5.1 Time to extinction | 59 | |||
| 2.5.2 Estimating variation | 60 | |||
| 2.6 Exercises | 61 | |||
| Exercise 2.1: Accounting for demographic stochasticity | 61 | |||
| Exercise 2.2: Building a model of Muskox | 62 | |||
| Exercise 2.3: Constructing risk curves | 64 | |||
| Exercise 2.4 Sensitivity analysis | 67 | |||
| 2.7 Further reading | 69 | |||
| Chapter 3 Population regulation | 71 | |||
| 3.1 Introduction | 7 | |||
| 3.2 Effects of crowding | 7 | |||
| 3.2.1 Increased mortality | 72 | |||
| 3.2.2 Decreased reproduction | 73 | |||
| 3.2.3 Self-thinning | 74 | |||
| 3.2.4 Territories | 75 | |||
| 3.3 Types of density dependence | 76 | |||
| 3.3.1 Scramble competition | 77 | |||
| 3.3.2 Contest competition | 83 | |||
| 3.3.3 Ceiling model | 85 | |||
| 3.3.4 Allee effects | 86 | |||
| 3.3.5 The concept of carrying capacity | 89 | |||
| 3.3.6 Carrying capacity for the human population | 90 | |||
| 3.4 Assumptions of density-dependent models | 91 | |||
| 3.5 Cycles and chaos | 91 | |||
| 3.6 Harvesting and density dependence | 92 | |||
| 3.7 Adding environmental variation | 94 | |||
| 3.8 Additional topics | 95 | |||
| 3.8.1 Equations | 95 | |||
| 3.8.2 Estimating density dependence parameters | 97 | |||
| 3.9 Exercises | 98 | |||
| Exercise 3.1: Gause's experiment with Paramecium | 98 | |||
| Exercise 3.2: Adding stochasticity to density dependence | 99 | |||
| Exercise 3.3: Exploring differences between density dependence types | 100 | |||
| Exercise 3.4: Demonstrating chaos | 101 | |||
| Exercise 3.5: Density dependence and harvesting | 102 | |||
| Exercise 3.6: Density independence graphs | 104 | |||
| 3.10 Further reading | 104 | |||
| Chapter 4 Age structure | 105 | |||
| 4.1 Introduction | 105 | |||
| 4.2 Assumptions of age-structured models | 107 | |||
| 4.3 An age-structured model for the Helmeted Honeyeater | 108 | |||
| 4.3.1 Survival rates | 109 | |||
| 4.3.2 Fecundities | 111 | |||
| 4.3.3 Sex ratio | 113 | |||
| 4.4 The Leslie matrix | 113 | |||
| 4.4.1 Leslie matrix for Helmeted Honeyeaters | 115 | |||
| 4.4.2 Projection with the Leslie matrix | 117 | |||
| 4.4.3 Stable age distribution | 119 | |||
| 4.4.4 Reproductive value | 121 | |||
| 4.5 Adding Stochasticity | 123 | |||
| 4.5.1 Demographic stochasticity | 123 | |||
| 4.5.2 Environmental stochasticity | 125 | |||
| 4.6 Life Tables | 127 | |||
| 4.6.1 The survivorship schedule | 128 | |||
| 4.6.2 The maternity (fertility) schedule | 130 | |||
| 4.6.3 Life history parameters | 131 | |||
| 4.6.4 Life table assumptions | 132 | |||
| 4.7 Additional topics | 133 | |||
| 4.7.1 Estimating survivals and fecundities | 133 | |||
| 4.7.2 Estimating a Leslie matrix from a life table | 136 | |||
| 4.7.3 Estimating variation | 141 | |||
| 4.8 Exercises | 143 | |||
| Exercise 4.1: Building the Helmeted Honeyeater model | 144 | |||
| Exercise 4.2: Human demography | 148 | |||
| Exercise 4.3: Leslie matrix for Brook Trout | 149 | |||
| Exercise 4.4: Fishery management | 152 | |||
| 4.9 Further reading | 155 | |||
| Chapter 5 Stage structure | 157 | |||
| 5.1 Introduction | 157 | |||
| 5.2 Assumptions of stage-structured models | 158 | |||
| 5.3 Stage structure based on size | 159 | |||
| 5.4 A stage model for an Alder | 161 | |||
| 5.5 Building stage-structured models | 163 | |||
| 5.5.1 Residence times, stable distribution and reproductive value | 165 | |||
| 5.5.2 Constraints | 166 | |||
| 5.5.3 Adding density dependence | 167 | |||
| 5.6 Sensitivity analysis | 168 | |||
| 5.6.1 Planning field research | 168 | |||
| 5.6.2 Evaluating management options | 170 | |||
| 5.7 Additional topics | 171 | |||
| 5.7.1 Estimation of stage matrix | 171 | |||
| 5.8 Exercises | 174 | |||
| Exercise 5.1: Reverse transitions | 174 | |||
| Exercise 5.2: Modelling a perennial plant | 174 | |||
| Exercise 5.3: Sea Turtle conservation | 176 | |||
| Exercise 5.4: Sensitivity analysis | 178 | |||
| 5.9 Further reading | 181 | |||
| Chapter 6 Metapopulations and spatial structure | 183 | |||
| 6.1 Introduction | 183 | |||
| 6.1.1 Spatial heterogeneity | 185 | |||
| 6.1.2 Habitat loss and fragmentation | 186 | |||
| 6.1.3 Island biogeography | 187 | |||
| 6.2 Metapopulation dynamics | 190 | |||
| 6.2.1 Geographic configuration | 191 | |||
| 6.2.2 Spatial correlation of environmental variation | 191 | |||
| 6.2.3 Dispersal patterns | 193 | |||
| 6.2.4 Interaction between dispersal and correlation | 196 | |||
| 6.2.5 Assumptions of metapopulation models | 197 | |||
| 6.3 Applications | 199 | |||
| 6.3.1 Reintroduction and translocation | 200 | |||
| 6.3.2 Corridors and reserve design | 201 | |||
| 6.3.3 Impact assessment: fragmentation | 202 | |||
| 6.4 Exercises | 203 | |||
| An overview of the program | 203 | |||
| Exercise 6.1: Spatial factors and extinction risks | 205 | |||
| Exercise 6.2: Habitat loss | 209 | |||
| Exercise 6.3: Designing reserves for the Spotted Owl | 210 | |||
| 6.5 Further reading | 212 | |||
| Chapter 7 Population viability analysis | 213 | |||
| 7.1 Introduction | 213 | |||
| 7.2 Extinction | 214 | |||
| 7.2.1 Extinction in geological time | 215 | |||
| 7.2.2 Current extinction rates | 216 | |||
| 7.2.3 The causes of extinction | 220 | |||
| 7.2.4 Classification of threat | 222 | |||
| 7.3 Components of population viability analysis | 224 | |||
| 7.3.1 Identification of the question and estimation of parameters | 224 | |||
| 7.3.2 Modeling, risk assessment, sensitivity analysis | 228 | |||
| 7.3.3 Cost-benefit analysis | 228 | |||
| 7.3.4 Implementation, monitoring, evaluation | 231 | |||
| 7.4 The limits of population viability analysis | 232 | |||
| 7.5 Exercises | 234 | |||
| Exercise 7.1: Habitat management for Gnatcatchers | 234 | |||
| Exercise 7.2: Comparing management options | 236 | |||
| Exercise 7.3: Habitat loss and fragmentation | 238 | |||
| 7.6 Further reading | 240 | |||
| Chapter 8 Decision-making and natural resource management | 241 | |||
| 8.1 Introduction | 241 | |||
| 8.2 Detecting impact | 242 | |||
| 8.2.1 Power, importance and significance: an example | 244 | |||
| 8.2.2 The precautionary principle | 247 | |||
| 8.3 Managing natural resources | 248 | |||
| 8.3.1 Predicting the outcome | 248 | |||
| 8.3.2 Explaining the uncertainty | 249 | |||
| 8.3.3 Model uncertainty: the importance of detail | 252 | |||
| 8.3.4 Strategies and contingencies | 253 | |||
| 8.4 The economic and ecological contexts of natural resource management | 254 | |||
| 8.4.1 Uncertainty and sustainability | 256 | |||
| 8.4.2 The role of applied population ecologists | 257 | |||
| 8.5 Exercises | 259 | |||
| Exercise 8.1: Statistical power and environmental detection | 259 | |||
| Exercise 8.2: Sustainable catch revisited | 261 | |||
| Exercise 8.3: Sustainable use | 263 | |||
| 8.6 Further reading | 265 | |||
| Appendix: RAMAS EcoLab Installation and Use | 267 | |||
| References | 273 | |||
| Index | 281 | |||
| Also see: Textbook description RAMAS EcoLab features Preface Foreword by Mark Shaffer Review by Don Waller in Quarterly Review of Biology Review by Saul Saila in Fisheries Return to Software for Teaching |
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Date modified:
3-22-02