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AB Scientist: W. Troy Tucker

 
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W. Troy Tucker, Ph.D.

Title: Research Scientist
 

        W. Troy Tucker is a human ecologist and anthropologist.  He received a B.A. from the University of Utah and an M.S. and Ph.D. from the University of New Mexico.  His past anthropological research includes a quantitative statistical study of the demography of New Mexican men (supported by a National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship) and quantitative demographic and ethnographic studies among a hunter-gatherer population in Venezuela, an agricultural village in Tanzania, and swidden agriculturalists in Madagascar.  At Applied Biomathematics he is a research scientist and project manager.  His research has spanned many areas in risk analysis, uncertainty propagation, and human perception of risks and uncertainties, including work in human and ecological risk assessments for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, developing extreme engineering uncertainty propagation tools for NASA, and uncertainty visualization and analysis technology for the pharmaceutical industry.  He organized a National Science Foundation workshop on risk perception and communication and is editing the forthcomming proceedings for the New York Academy of Sciences.  His email address is troy@ramas.com.


Recent and upcoming presentations, publications, software, and events:

  • Tucker, W.T., S. Ferson, A. Finkel, and D. Slavin (eds.).  2008.  Strategies for Risk Communication: Evolution, Evidence, Experience.  Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.  Blackwell. [in press].
  • Tucker, W.T., J.D. Litzgus, S. Ferson, H.R. Akcakaya, M. Thompson, D. Fort, and J. Lortie.  2008.  Population-level effects of PCBs on wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) breeding in vernal pools associated with the Housatonic River, Pittsfield to Lenoxdale, Massachusetts.  In Akçakaya, H.R., J. D. Stark, and T. S. Bridges (editors), Demographic Toxicity: Methods in Ecological Risk Assessment.  Oxford University Press, New York.  [in press].
  • Kreinovich, V., J.G. Hajagos, W.T. Tucker, L.R. Ginzburg, and S. Ferson.  2008.  Propagating uncertainty through a quadratic response surface model.  Sandia Report SAND2008-XXXX.  Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (in review).
  • Tucker, W.T.  2008.  Evolved altruism and what it means to risk perception.  Invited lecture, Risk and Regulation Seminar Series, Wharton School of Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, University of Pennsylvania Law School, March 25, 4:30-6:00 pm.
  • Tucker, W.T.  2007.  Framing, biases, heuristics, the normative/descriptive gap, and ecologically rational choice.  Invited lecture, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Feb. 26.
  • Tucker, W.T., and S. Ferson.  2006.  Evolved altruism, strong reciprocity, and perception of risk.  Paper presented at the Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, Baltimore, MD, December 3-6.
  • Ferson, S., and W.T. Tucker.  2006.  Strategies for risk communication: The Montauk guidance.  Paper presented at the Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, Baltimore, MD, December 3-6.
  • Ferson, S. and W.T. Tucker.  2006. Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding.  Reliability Engineering and System Safety 91:1435-1442.
  • Tucker, W.T., S. Ferson, and Lev Ginzburg.  2006.  Imaging Uncertain Risk and Perceived Risk from Drug Side Effects.  Invited presentation in the Metabolism & Cardiovascular Disease Education Program Lecture series, Merck, Inc.  Rahway, NJ, Wednesday, September 13, from 12:00 to 1:00 pm.
  • Strategies for Risk Communication: Evolution, Evidence and Experience.  A Society for Risk Analysis sponsored symposium held at Montauk, Long Island, New York, May 15-17, 2006.
  • Ferson, S., L. Ginzburg, and W.T. Tucker.  2006.  Sensitivity in risk analysis with uncertain numbers.  Sandia Report SAND2006-2801.  Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.
  • Tucker, W.T., A. Finkel, and S. Ferson.  2005.  Uncertainty and Variability on the Cost Side of Cost-Benefit: What Would Happen if We Stopped Ignoring It?  Paper presented at the Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, Orlando, FL, December 4-7.
  • Tucker, W.T., S. Ferson, and H. Strauss.  2005.  Evaluating Risks from Fish Consumption in the Housatonic River: Probabilistic Assessment.  Paper presented at the Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, Orlando, FL, December 4-7.
  • Strauss, H., W.T. Tucker, and S. Ferson.  2005.  Evaluating Risks from Fish Consumption in the Housatonic River: Exposure Parameters.  Paper presented at the Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, Orlando, FL, December 4-7.
  • Ferson, S. and W.T. Tucker.  2005.  What Monte Carlo Cannot Do: Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities.  An all day tutorial workshop held in conjunction with the Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, December 4, Orlando, FL.
  • Tucker, W.T., D. Slavin, and S. Ferson.  2005.  Imaging Risk: Application of Quantitative Uncertainty Techniques to the Visualization of Risk.  Submitted to Risk Analysis.
  • Ferson, S., R. Nelsen, J. Hajagos, D. Berleant, J. Zhang, W.T. Tucker, L. Ginzburg, and W.L. Oberkampf.  2005.  Myths about Correlations and Dependencies and their Implications for Risk Analysis.  Submitted to Human and Ecological Risk Assessment.
  • Tucker, W.T., S. Ferson, and L. Ginzburg.  2005.  Risk Perception and the Problems We Make for Ourselves.  Invited presentation to the Society for Risk Analysis, Northeast Chapter.  Boston, MA.  3 March.
  • Ferson, S., W.T. Tucker, and L. Ginzburg.  2005.  Overdriving the Headlights: Empirical Data Limit Risk Analyses.  Invited presentation to the Society for Risk Analysis, Northeast Chapter.  Boston, MA.  3 March.
  • Tucker, W.T., M.E. Thompson, J.P. Lortie, D.J. Fort, S. Svirsky, and S. Ferson.  2005.  PCB Effects on a Wood Frog meta-population.  Paper presented at the North Atlantic Regional Chapter 11th Annual Meeting (SETAC North America), 8-10 June, Burlington, VT.
  • Tucker, W.T. and S. Ferson.  2005.  Probabilistic Risk Assessment.  Section 6 in Human Health Risk Assessment, GE/Housatonic River Site, Rest of River, Volume 4, Appendix C, Fish and Waterfowl Consumption Risk Assessment, prepared by Weston Solutions, Inc. for US Army Corps of Engineers and US EPA.  February 11, pp. 6-1 – 6-129.  Available online here. (Warning, big big pdf file!)
  • Tucker, W.T. and S. Ferson.  2005.  Probability Bounds Analysis Approach.  Attachment 5 in Human Health Risk Assessment, GE/Housatonic River Site, Rest of River, Volume 1, prepared by Weston Solutions, Inc. for US Army Corps of Engineers and US EPA.  February 11.  Available online here.  (Note: click on Volume I, then scroll to Attachment 5 near the end.)
  • Tucker, W.T., N. Obushenko, L. Ginzburg, A. Sokol, and S. Ferson.  2005.  RAMAS® Risk Imaging: Visualizing Uncertain Risks.  Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York.  (Software and documentation.)
  • Ferson, S., R.B. Nelson, J. Hajagos, D. Berleant, J. Zhang, W.T. Tucker, L. Ginzburg, and W.L. Oberkampf.  2004.  Dependence in Probabilistic Modeling, Dempster-Shafer Theory, and Probability Bounds Analysis.  Sandia Report SAND2004-3072.  Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.
  • Ferson, S., J. Hajagos, D.S. Myers, and W.T. Tucker.  2004.  Constuctor: Synthesizing Information about Uncertain Variables.  Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York.  (Software and documentation.)
  • Tucker, W.T. and S. Ferson.  2004.  Why People Don’t Get Risk Analyses: The Fault is in Ourselves.  Invited paper presented at the 2004 Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, December 5-8, Palm Springs, CA.
  • Slavin, D., W.T. Tucker, and S. Ferson.  2004.  Techniques for Visualizing Uncertainty and Perceptions of Risk.  Presented at the 2004 Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, December 5-8, Palm Springs, CA.
  • Myers, D.S., W.T. Tucker, and S. Ferson.  2004.  Two-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis versus Probability Bounding: Do They Give the Same Answer?  Presented at the 2004 Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, December 5-8, Palm Springs, CA.
  • Ferson, S. and W.T. Tucker.  2004.  Solving Uncertain Equations: Backcalculating, Updating, and Deconvolving.  Presented at the 2004 Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, December 5-8, Palm Springs, CA.
  • Ferson, S. and W.T. Tucker.  2004.  What Monte Carlo Cannot Do: Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities.  An all day tutorial workshop held in conjunction with the Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, December 4, Palm Springs, CA.
  • Tucker, W.T., M.E. Thompson, J.P. Lortie, D.J. Fort, and S. Ferson.  2004.  A Stochastic Population Model Incorporating PCB Effects for Wood Frogs (Rana sylvatica) Breeding in Vernal Pools Associated with the Housatonic River, Pittsfield to Lenoxdale, Massachusetts, Attachment E.4 in Ecological Risk Assessment, GE/Housatonic River Site, Rest of River, Volume 5, Appendix E, Assessment Endpoint - Amphibians, prepared by Weston Solutions, Inc. for US Army Corps of Engineers and US EPA.  November 12.  Available online here.  (Warning, big big pdf file.)
  • Ferson, S., V. Kreinovich, and W.T. Tucker.  2004.  Untangling Equations Involving Uncertainty: Deconvolutions, Updates, and Backcalculations.  Paper presented at the NSF workshop on Reliable Engineering Computing, Savannah, GA, September 15-17.
  • Tucker, W.T., and H.R. Akçakaya.  2004.  Modeling the Effect of Human Population on Land Use and Species Viability.  Paper presented at the 2004 Society for Conservation Biology meetings, New York, NY, July 30-August 2.
  • Tucker, W.T., J. Litzgus, M.E. Thompson, J.P. Lortie, D.J. Fort, S. Svirsky, and S. Ferson.  2004.  Extinction Risk in a Wood Frog (Rana sylvatica) Metapopulation under Environmental Contamination by PCBs.  Paper presented at the 2004 Society for Conservation Biology meetings, New York, NY, July 30-August 2.
  • Tucker, W.T., S. Ferson and W.L. Oberkampf.  2004.  The Notion of Independence when Probabilities are Imprecise.  Paper presented at the 9th ASCE Specialty Conference on Probabilistic Mechanics and Structural Reliability, Albuquerque, NM, July 26-28.
  • Pochron, S.T., W.T. Tucker, and P.C. Wright.  2004.  Demography, Life History and Social Structure in Propithecus diadema edwardsi from 1986 to 2000 in Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar.  American Journal of Physical Anthropology 125:61-72.
  • Tucker, W.T. and S. Ferson.  2003.  Probability Bounds Analysis in Environmental Risk Assessments.  Manuscript.
  • Tucker, W.T., D.S. Myers, and S. Ferson.  2003.  Backcalculating Cleanup Targets across Trophic Levels in a Probabilistic Assessment.  Paper presented at the 2003 Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, Baltimore, MD.
  • Tucker, W.T., and S. Ferson.  2003.  Setting Cleanup Targets in a Probabilistic Assessment.  In Groundwater Quality Modeling and Management Under Uncertainty, S. Mishra (Ed.).  Proceedings of the Probabilistic Approaches & Groundwater Modeling Symposium held during the World Water and Environmental Resources Congress in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, June 24-26, 2003.  Reston, VA: ASCE Publications.
  • Ferson, S. and W.T. Tucker.  2003.  Reliability of Risk Analyses for PAH-contaminated Groundwater.  In Groundwater Quality Modeling and Management Under Uncertainty, S. Mishra (Ed.).  Proceedings of the Probabilistic Approaches & Groundwater Modeling Symposium held during the World Water and Environmental Resources Congress in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, June 24-26, 2003.  Reston, VA: ASCE Publications.
  • Ferson, S., L. Ginzburg, J. Hajagos, and W.T. Tucker.  2002.  Terrorism’s Implications for Uncertainty Calculi.  Paper presented at Risk-based Decisionmaking in Water Resources X, Engineering Foundation Conference, November 3-8, Santa Barbara, CA.
  • Tucker, W.T. and S. Ferson.  2002.  Backcalculation of Remediation Targets in a Probabilistic Assessment.  Presented at the 2002 SETAC meeting, November 16-20, Salt Lake City, UT.
  • Ferson, S. and W.T. Tucker.  2002.  Probability Bounds with Uncertain Input Distributions and Correlations.  Proceedings of the 6th World Multiconference on Systemics, Cybernetics, and Informatics, July 14-18, 2002, Orlando, FL.
  • Kaplan, H., J. Lancaster, W.T. Tucker, and K.G. Anderson.  2002.  Evolutionary Approach to Below Replacement Fertility.  American Journal of Human Biology 14(2):233-256.
  • Tucker, W.T., H. Kaplan, J. Lancaster, and S. Gangestad.  2001.  A life-history Model of Male Childlessness Applied to Data from Anglo and Hispanic New Mexican Men.  Presented at the 2001 Population Association of America annual meeting, Washington D.C.
  • Tucker, W.T.  2000.  Estimating Changes in Infertility and Childlessness over Time among American Men and Women.  Presented at the Human Behavior and Evolution Society annual meeting, Amherst, Massachusetts.
  • Tucker, W.T.  1999.  A Life-history Theory of Male Childlessness.  Presented at the Society for Cross-cultural Research annual meeting, Santa Fe, New Mexico.
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